Authors: Sara Turner, Jakkie Cilliers & Barry Hughes

Keyword: economic growth, job creation, poverty, unemployment

SDG: SDG1, SDG8

Agenda 2063: A1

The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component in the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore this goal and finds that many African states are unlikely to make this target by 2030, even when modelling a package of aggressive poverty reduction interventions. In addition to country-level targets the authors also argue in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030, and below 4% by 2045.