Authors: Tinashe Kapuya, Evans K Chinembiri & Mmatlou W Kalaba

Keyword: export markets, South Africa

Agenda 2063: A1

The article identifies South Africa’s strategic citrus markets among its major export partners using three complementary methodologies. Firstly, South Africa’s major markets for citrus are characterised according to a growth-share matrix to identify strategic country markets. Secondly, the paper uses an Indicative Trade Potential analysis to identify strategic markets that are high potential export countries. Thirdly, a gravity model is used to identify which strategic high potential markets are encouraging South African citrus exports. Out of South Africa’s 51 major citrus export destinations, 44 countries are considered “strategic” markets. From these 44 strategic markets, 26 are high potential markets. Among the 26 high potential markets, an identified 17 countries represent the most attractive markets that possess opportunities for greater export expansion. These 17 countries can be prioritised for an export promotion strategy: six are in the EU, four are in Asia, and two are in Eastern Europe; while three are from Middle East and two from North America. The paper concludes that more aggressive trade policy efforts should also be directed towards nine countries which are “high potential markets”, but exhibit trade-inhibiting features discouraging South Africa’s citrus exports. Trade facilitation efforts and bilateral agreements with such countries could be considered as an option to “lock in” the benefits of unexploited export potential in key strategic citrus export markets.